Tony Gonzalez: Best Receiver Not Named Rice?

16 October, 2011

When he retires he plans to be a fire
department's designated baby-catcher.
Tony Gonzalez can move into 2nd all-time in receptions today. He has 1,096 and is 4th. Cris Carter had 1,101 for 3rd and Marvin Harrison is 2nd with 1,102. 1st all time is a bit out of reach. Rice had 1,549. He needs 7 catches to move into second.

I don't mean to alarm you, but if you look up the active leaders in career receiving yards in the NFL, you'll find Tony Gonzalez at the top of the list. I would imagine this is the first time in history that a Tight End has held this distinction.

He gave up Basketball because it was far too easy.
Pro Football Reference actually lists him at #3 with 12,752 yards, trailing Randy Moss with 14,858 and Terrell Owens with 15,934. Moss retired and Owens is a free agent, though he claims he's coming back. So depending on how strictly you define "active," you could have Tony G on top.

Gonzalez is the best Tight End ever. He holds all TE records there are to be had. He's also a hell of a blocker.

Some of the TEs these days are more like Wide Receivers. They line up outside more, they aren't often asked to act like an Offensive Tackle and help pound the rock. So some of these younger TEs are putting up bigger numbers than Tony did, but it's almost like they play a different position. Tony was part of the offensive lines that made Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, and Michael Turner into running machines, while he was also setting records as a receiver.
He gets confused about the NFL's alley-oop rules.

So clearly he's accomplished more than any other TE. But is he one of the best Receivers of all-time?

We like to talk about how many 1000-yard seasons receivers have, because we like base-10. Tony G has 8 900-yard seasons and 4 1000-yard seasons.

In 2004 he led the league in receptions. He's caught at least 70 balls in 11 seasons.

He's 14th on the all-time list for receiving yards, ahead of Art Monk and Michael Irvin.

AND-1
By the end of this season, he'll probably pass Irving Fryar (needs 33 yards), Steve Largent (needs 350 yards), Andre Reed (needs 450 yards), and could pass Torry Holt (needs 650). If he plays next year he could pass Henry Ellard (about 1000 behind him), Cris Carter (about 1200), and James Lofton (1400 or so). He could easily be 7th on the all time list in 15 months.

He's 9th all-time in Touchdown catches. 1st amongst active players (again if you don't count Moss and Owens).

Tony G's greatness goes beyond statistics.

He saved a man's life with the heimlich maneuver. A Charger fan.

He literally saved a man's life by knocking him over. No seriously, he ran into a photographer after a play, causing a concussion which led to doctors discovering a brain tumor that would have otherwise gone unnoticed. That's Jesus territory.

Oh and he literally fucks October. And I mean literally, because he's like Paul Bunyan. His wife's name is October, but it's also the month his teams have the best record. So when Tony bangs October, they made a River...River Gonzalez. Seriously, he IS Paul Bunyan.

And he's only ever missed 2 games. Drafted in 1997, he missed one game in '99 and another in '06. That's it. That's 231 games in the NFL.

Before Leaf and Manning there was the
Lafleur/Gonzalez debate. Good call Cowboys.
The sad footnote to his career is 0 playoff wins. He lost to the '97 Broncos as Elway led them to a championship. He lost in '03 to Manning and the Colts in a game that had no punts. He lost to the '06 Colts on their way to a Super Bowl win. And he lost to Aaron Rodgers and the Super Bowl champion Packers last year.

Tony recently said he could play another 3 years. It sounds ridiculous. But you know what, Tony Gonzalez is pretty ridiculous.

He's a hall of famer without doubt. But at some point we're going to have to stop thinking of Tight Ends and Wide Receivers as totally different positions. So where does he rank amongst TEs and H-Backs and Wideouts and whatever the hell Reggie Bush is? That's what we're going to have to figure out at some point. (Just not about Reggie Bush, he sucks. FYI, Reggie Bush has fewer rushing yards in the NFL than Mark Brunell.)

So today, watch for Tony G to maybe move into #2 all time in receptions.

Kurt Warner: The Greatest of All-Time

Man, the X-files were great.
Kurt Warner isn't a lock for the hall of fame. He only started 116 games and won one super bowl. Eli Manning is at 108 games and counting (without missing one) and has a ring too. One thing the Hall looks for is longevity. They don't like guys that were great for a couple of years. They like the Jerry Rices and the Reggie Whites. Kurt Warner just doesn't fit that bill. 


He might still make it based more on his public image and the underdog story he embodied, but I think that's missing the point.


If you were building a franchise and could pick any QB in history to be your guy, maybe you go Brady, Manning, Montana, Elway, Marino, and you'd have success for a decade and a half.


If you had to win one game and could pick any QB in his prime to lead your team, I'd pick Kurt Warner. Just one game? Warner is the guy. And here's why:




Here come the PANTHERS
1. Kurt Warner has only ever started all 16 games three times in his career. 


He's tough, it's not because he can't take the pounding, it's because he never gives up on the play. He hangs in there and waits for that opening. He takes more sacks, but also makes big plays. 


So when he stays healthy and plays all 16 games, how does his team fare in the playoffs? Oh They went to the Super Bowl every year. Like clockwork. Warner's totally healthy? Super Bowl bound. One year he started 15 games, that was 2009. They beat Green Bay in a shootout to open the playoffs, then went to New Orleans and lost to the eventual champs. So in the 4 years he played more than 11 games, his playoff record was 9-3. And every one of those losses was to the eventual champion.




2. He is unstoppable in the playoffs. 


"Pop" Warner.
There are plenty of QBs that can put up monster numbers in the regular season, but when the games start to really count, suddenly it's like they just graduated from college to the pros. The hits are harder, everyone's covered, they make mistakes. 


Peyton Manning's QB rating is about 7 points lower in the postseason (94.9 to 88.4). Tom Brady's is 10 points lower (95.7 to 85.7). Joe Montana, Mr. Clutch, goes up about 3 points in the postseason (92.3 to 95.6).  Warner goes up nearly 10 points, from 93.7 to 102.3. That means that the degree to which Brady gets worse in the playoffs, Warner changes that much, but for the better. 


Warner's career playoff stats:
3952 Yards, 31 TD 14 INT, 66.5% 


Tom Brady's playoff stats:
4407 Yards, 30 TD, 16 INT, 62.2%


Hey Trent, can I play? LOL
Hey, they're almost the same! So Warner's playoff resume should be just about as good as Brady's unless you're just looking at SB wins. 


Oh wait, Brady has played in 19 playoff games. Warner only 13. It took Brady 6 more playoff games to have 1 fewer TD, 2 more INTs, and only 450 more yards. 


Warner throws for 306 yards per game in the playoffs. Extrapolate his 13 career playoff games into a 16 game season and it looks like this:


4864 Yards (only 220 shy of the NFL record), 38 TDs, 17 INTs.
You're too old Kurt.


That's how good he is in just playoff games. For comparison, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the last 2 guys to set the single-season TD record (50 and 49), have only ever thrown for 38 TDs in a season once each, the year they set the record. Marino only ever did it twice. And that's in the regular season, not the playoffs.


Another metric to look at is yards per attempt, which shows how much the QB is stretching the field. Some teams use dump-offs as essentially an aspect of the running game, which inflates their passing numbers. 


Here's some career YPA numbers:
Brady 7.5
Manning 7.6
Marino 7.3
Montana 7.5
Warner 7.9
Time to see what the kid can do.


Go to their career playoff numbers and it looks like this:
Brady 6.5
Manning 7.5
Marino 6.5
Montana 7.8
Warner 8.5


Again we see evidence that when Kurt drops back to pass, he ain't looking to dump it off. He wants it all. 


One of these guys is the quarterback of the future.


3. He's TOO Good.



With just over 2 minutes to go in Super Bowl 34, the Titans just tied the game 16-16. Kurt Warner and the Rams take over at their 27 yard line. This is the Joe Montana, Tom Brady moment. Where the QB leads his team on a game winning drive to run out the clock as time expires.


 NO JUST KIDDING. This is the part where Kurt Warner throws a 73 yard touchdown bomb on the first play. Because Warner is TOO GOOD, they left a lot of time on the clock, enabling the Titans to come just a yard short.




I'd like to thank our defense for letting
Warner torch them and leaving me some time.
Two years later, Super Bowl 36. The story we remember is that Patriots shutting down the Rams greatest show on turf, and Tom Brady leading the great drive to win the game. However, Warner threw for the 2nd highest yard total in Super Bowl history. 
The Rams trailed 17-3 mid-way through the 4th quarter. He led the Rams back to tie the game. The Rams toook the ball on their 45, with 1:51 left, down by a touchdown. This is going to be the moment, right? Where Warner leads a dink-and-dunk touchdown drive? No.


Three complete passes later and the rams were in the end zone. Warner was too good, leaving the Patriots too much time on the clock, enough for Vinatieri to win it.



7 years later. Cardinals, Steelers. Warner took a sub-par team, once laughed at as the worst playoff team in history, threw them on his god-like throwing arm and nearly won the whole damn thing.

Having trailed the entire game, the Cards took over on their own 36 with 3 minutes to go, down 20-16. It took only 2 plays, one for 3 yards, and the other a 64 yard pass to Larry Fitzgerald. A magnificent 21 second drive to the endzone and to take the lead in the super bowl. 
Thanks Kurt.

Unfortunately, Warner was too good, left too much time on the clock, and the result was Santonio Holmes tiptoing a TD with mere seconds left.

We so often measure greatness in a QB by wins and losses. But it is a team sport. While Troy Aikman, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tom Brady have quarterbacked teams to 3 or more super bowl appearances, they had great coaching staffs, excellent protection, and most of all, a defense that could win championships. Just ask Trent Dilfer about a great defense. 

While it's a passing league now, you don't often see teams that are Pass-first, run-second, winning championships. How many can you think of? The Saints in the epic Saints-Colts Super Bowl. The Colts in 06? Well, they actually ran more in that rainy super bowl. The answer is not many. Most super bowls are won by great defenses, strong clock-controlling running games, and effective quarterbacks that don't make mistakes.
Kurt Warner typically had none of those advantages. He had himself, a split second to throw the ball, and his receivers. With just that, he was the definition of clutch. He would have won 3 super bowls, with 3 game-winning or tying drives in the final minutes, capped with touchdown passes. In fact, those 3 drives only took him a total of 6 plays. 
Damnit Kurt, couldn't you have scored faster?

But we remember more the last second heroics of the other team either beating his defense, or his defense making a miraculous stop. 

Remember the 2007 Patriots, when Tom Brady became a Touchdown machine. How'd that Super Bowl end? Brady led a 12 play, 80 yard drive to the end zone to take a 14-10 lead with 2:42 left. Remember that? No, we remember the Giants desperation drive down the field to take the lead with little time left. It's the curse of the great passing team. They can't control the clock. They leave too much time for heroics.

Imagine if Warner had been a first round pick, a guy given the reigns at 22, a solid defense, a great coaching staff. What could he have done in a 14 year career? Instead, he was overlooked, finally got a chance, and won the whole damn thing, wasn't that long before they took his team away to give it to a younger QB. Then he got a new team, but not for long, he was just keeping it warm for a great new rookie. Then again. The dude never quit, and when it came down to the end of games and seasons, he never flinched.

5084

October 12, 2011
The Greatest Show on Burgh. 
Through 5 weeks, 5 Quarterbacks are on pace to break Marino's single-season passing yards record of 5084:

Tom Brady 6000
Drew Brees 5664
Aaron Rodgers 5504
Cam Newton 5152
Tony Romo 5088 (through 4 games and a punctured lung)

Of course a pace through 5 games won't hold up, but the fact that we have 5 QBs on this pace tells me that it's pretty likely that one of them will be able to break 5100 yards.

HOWEVER, passing yards isn't a great indicator of success. Yeah it's good to have a hell of a passing game, but consider this stat:

The league leader in passing yards has NEVER led his team to a super bowl victory. You would think that in 40+ years, the QB with the most yards would have accomplished this feat. You would be wrong.

That's a sexy yellow. 
If you look at the list of QB seasons sorted by passing yards, with Marino's  5084 in '84 at number one, and Drew Brees 5069 in 2008 as number two, you have to go all the way to the 34th best year to find Peyton Manning's 2006 season to find a super bowl winner. Drew Brees '09 season is 35th, and Kurt Warner's '99 season is 39th. But after that, you won't find another super bowl winner until Brady in '05 at 67th. After that you won't find another SB winner in the top 100.

Those are definitely real. 
(Source)

Going back to Marino's record, here is how the team with the QB that led the league in yards fared:

2010 Colts - Lost wild card weekend.
2009 Texans - Missed the playoffs.
2008 Saints - Missed the playoffs.
2007 Patriots - Lost SB.
2006 Saints - They make it to the Conference Championship and get blown out by the Bears.
2005 Cardinals - Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald...5-11
2004 Colts - Pats had their number (20-3)
2003 Colts - Pats got them in AFC title game.
2002 Raiders - Lost in SB.
2001 Rams - Lost in SB.

2000 Rams - Lost wild card weekend.
1999 Panthers - Missed Playoffs (Yeah Steve Beuerlein led the league in passing, not Warner)
1998 Vikings - Lost in Conference Championship (huge upset)
1997 Seahawks (w/ Warren Moon) - Missed Playoffs
1996 Jaguars - Lost AFC title game.
1995 49ers - Lost first playoff game to Packers.
1994 Patriots - Lost wildcard weekend.
1993 Dolphins - Started 9-2, lost 5 straight to miss playoffs.
1992 Oilers - Lost first playoff game to Buffalo after blowing a 35-3 lead.
1991 Oilers - Lost divisional round game at Denver.
1990 Oilers - Lost 41-14 Wild Card game to the Bengals.
1989 Redskins - Missed Playoffs.
1988 Dolphins - Missed Playoffs.
1987 49ers - lost after first round bye.
1986 Dolphins - Missed Playoffs.
1985 Chargers - Missed Playoffs.
Mort! Wait...Gary!...no wait. Hold on. 
1984 Dolphins - Lost to 49ers in SB, 38-16.

So in 27 seasons, the QB with the most yards missed the playoffs 10 times, lost right away 7 times, had one of the biggest end of year collapses (9-2 start to miss playoffs), one of the biggest upsets in conference title history (98 Vikings lose to the Falcons), gave up the biggest comeback ever (led 35-3 in the second half against a backup QB and lost), and lost 4 Super Bowls, including the infamous 18-1.

Seems to be a curse not a blessing.

So while we might be ready to admit that Defense wins championships, it does seem that racking in gaudy passing stats doesn't.
There are a few reasons for this.

1. Teams that win big don't need to pass a lot, they'll rack up more rushing yards in garbage time, while teams playing lots of close games or playing from behind will keep throwing late into the game.
The Reich Stuff

2. A solid run game that controls the clock might not be as sexy, but it wins championships.

3. You can throw all over the field in the regular season, but come playoff time, somebody will figure out how to stop you. It's just the nature of the playoffs. Ask Peyton or Dan.

The only QB that really came close to confounding these factors was Kurt Warner, who I think is the best playoff QB ever... More to come.

The Expos

6 October, 2011

They're called the Expos cause they
got some splainin to do. 
Exposition, that is.

The KEY to exposition is to make your audience want to know the information you're trying to tell them. Sounds easy enough.

Here are some strategies.

1. The Mystery

The Matrix's first 30 or so minutes is basically a mystery. We know that Trinity and Agent Smith can jump impossibly high, and then she sorta vanishes some how. Then there's the "bugging," and the mouth closing over. Basically there's a bunch of things that are impossible in the real world. Then we have Neo mention, and wonder aloud about what the matrix is. The audience is along with Neo as he's trying to figure out what the Matrix is. So when we have that set piece where Morpheus directly explains what the Matrix is, it's mind blowing instead of dull exposition.
You take the Red Pill, then I explain a bunch of crap to you.

The Thirteenth Floor, which is a very similar movie from the same year uses the same thing. Except they use the mystery as almost the entire plot.

Instead of coming right out to the audience and saying "Okay, so this movie is set in the year 1995 and there are wizards." You can have little hints about the fact that wizards or magic exists and then the main character and the audience are looking for clues about what's going on.

What's he standing on?
The mystery plot is overdone in sci-fi and stories set in the future. For example, the Will Smith I, Robot film is entirely based on a murder mystery. The founder of US Robotics, James Cromwell, perhaps jumped to his death. Will Smith thinks it's murder and is suspicious of all robots. So you go along with Will Smith as he suspects a robot, then a broader plot, and then a robot takeover of the planet. He follows hints left by James Cromwell. Ultimately it turns out that the giant AI running the robots and the city infrastructure decides to takeover the world in order to prevent human deaths from wars and pollution and such. And James Cromwell wanted to stop it, so he commanded a robot to kill him, and then left these hints for one specific detective to follow so he can stop the AI from taking over the world. But...wait a second. Why have yourself killed to leave cryptic hints? Why not just call him up and tell him what's up? Or, since he's the founder of US Robotics, and works in the same building as the evil AI...why doesn't he just destroy the AI like he vicariously gets Will Smith to do? It really doesn't make sense if you think about it. The screenwriter decided it would work better if there was a mystery angle and didn't bother to make Cromwell's actions realistic or logical.

2. The Lay Person

A long time ago, in a galaxy far away...they had these laser
sword things and they went all WOOSH and were awesome.
Make a character not know the exposition either. Luke Skywalker doesn't know much about the force, and neither does the audience. Then it makes sense to have someone explain it to them. See many other movies.

3. The Info Dump

Lord of the Rings and Star Wars are pretty big fans of this. Just throw a ton of information at the audience right off the bat. Make them read if you want to. This is the laziest and least dramatic way to do it. However, it can be effective for delivering a lot of information quickly and therefore getting the story moving faster.

4. Small Talk

"Hey Timothy Johnson, how are you doing since your son, Chris, died five years ago. I bet that's been hard to get over. How is your wife, Cindy, handling it?"

This happens far too often in films. You can adeptly deliver exposition through conversation, but it takes some finesse, other wise a lot of the audience will immediately see right through it.

5. The Expostion Device

Nice head. Too bad it got blown off. I mean...oral sex. 
Starship Troopers uses the fake propaganda videos to deliver information quickly. The beginning of Tropic Thunder shows a fake trailer for a movie starring each of the main characters, thus establishing each character and their acting persona very very quickly and it's funny. Get Him to the Greek uses a similar device, a music video for Russell Brand's musician character. Children of Men uses a news report about the death of the world's youngest person, an 18 year old, to very quickly establish that there are no kids being born.

6. Bad Narration

(V.O.) And then I pointed my gun at him and
made a squinty, wrinkled brow look to show
him I meant business.
The use of a voice over at the beginning or peppered throughout is the favorite tactic of meddling studio execs trying to ruin a film. They thought Blade Runner needed a poorly worded voice over to make it make sense. They thought Dark City's mystery plot was too confusing so they just had Kiefer Sutherland deliver a short narration at the beginning that gives away most of the mystery plot, thus leaving the audience watching the main character stumble around in the dark trying to figure out the mystery that the voice over just gave away. Not all voice overs are bad, but it's usually a bad sign.

7. The Status Quo Beat

One of the most popular ways to deliver exposition is to have a 10-15 minute sequence at the beginning of the film, showing the main character in action doing what they do, prior to the real inciting incident. In Raiders of the Lost Ark, we get to see Indiana on a mission, running from the big-ass ball, and then he goes back to being a teacher. Then the real plot begins. We've established his character by showing him in action. Minority Report (another Spielberg flick) does the same thing. We see Pre-Crime in action for a quick mission, establishing the characters, the setting, Pre-crime and how it works, and all while on an otherwise meaningless mission that has nothing to do with the real plot. That starts right after we've set up the status quo. Gladiator also uses this method. There's a quick battle that has nothing to do with the bigger plot, but establishes Maximus as a badass.


Before we get to the plot, first we have to show
the audience how this cool Operating System works. 
So if you have a lot of information to deliver, you are probably going to use one of these. Your situation dictates your choices to some extent. If you have no lay-persons that need things explained to them, then that's obviously out. The info dump, the small talk, and the bad narration approaches are the laziest. Unless you really know what you're doing, I'd advise against them. That just leaves the Mystery, the Device, and the Status Quo beat. Mystery works well, but does take up plot time, so if you have a more complicated plot in mind, perhaps the exposition shouldn't dominate the first bit of plot time. The Expo device is one of my favorite, but you need to find a way to make it original or to have it not be so transparently exposition. The Status quo beat is one of the safest ways of doing it. You give us the setting, the main character, lay down some rules for how this universe works, but without the pressure of having to get to the big plot just yet. It forces you to find something actiony for the characters to do, and that's basically the candy to help the medicine go down. Exposition is the medicine. Don't forget that, the audience doesn't like it. They're like dogs, you gotta hide it in their food.

Snoretoberfest: Or Why You Aren't Watching the MLB Post-season

6 October, 2011

I know what I'm watching. 
On Monday Night, sports fans had the option of watching the Tigers-Yankees ALDS Game 3 (with the series tied at 1-1), OR the Colts-Bucs Monday night game sans Peyton Manning. This should be a no-brainer, playoff game or a early season matchup between a basement dweller and an up and comer from a small market and few marquee players. So how do you think the ratings went?

MNF = 10.84 million viewers
MLB Playoff game = 6.05 million viewers.

Source

This discrepancy is a very big deal. Common sense would tell you that a playoff game following a grueling season featuring two teams from big markets and plenty of star power should completely destroy an early season matchup without much star power at all. The biggest draw in the football game was Peyton Manning in the booth.

So why does nobody give a shit about the MLB playoffs?


1. Baseball is Boring


Okay, before I get death threats, let me be clear. I believe that almost ANY sport can be incredibly entertaining if you get invested in it enough. If you're raised playing it, watching it, with a favorite team, you know all the intricacies, and you can really understand the minutae of the game, then it's going to be more interesting to you than some sport you've never seen before. This is true of all sports. My point is that when you throw a baseball game on the tube in front of a lay person, it's not going to excite them as other sports they are also unfamiliar with would.

Imagine we take Borat and tie him to a chair and give him a remote and the only things on TV are Baseball, Football, Futbol, Hockey, Basketball, etc. He's gonna settle on Football or Hockey. Those sports can be quite exciting even if you don't really know what's going on. The problem with basketball is that scores are so frequent they seem practically meaningless until the endgame. Futbol and baseball are the opposite. There's so much inaction (come on Soccer fans, don't tell me 90 minutes of light jogging is non-stop action) that you'll fall asleep if you aren't invested in the outcome. Maybe baseball would be alright if a game only took 80 minutes. But if I'm gonna invest 3 1/2 hours in a game, it's gonna be football.
Non-stop Action

The biggest thing about baseball is the pitcher/batter duel. Yet to the lay person, this duel is practically incomprehensible. They can understand how many balls or strikes you need, but aren't going to get anything out of pitch selection. Kids these days can't even sit through a movie without texting. Don't underestimate the power of being attention grabbing.

Baseball simply isn't the top sport in America, it's football and by a longshot.

2. The Playoff Format Sucks


In the NFL, you play 16 regular season games, then in the playoffs it's one-and-done. No best of 3 or 5 or 7. One game decides who moves on. That means that the quickest you can be eliminated is after playing a postseason 1/16th the length of the regular season.

In MLB, you play 162 regular season games, then the first playoff series is best of 5. If you lose the first 3, you're done. So that means the quickest you can be eliminated is after a post-season  that's 1/54th as long as the regular season.

See the problem? The NFL equivalence of the MLB playoffs would go like this:

World Series Champion
You go 13-3, ensure a first round bye. Then you host a 10-6 team. The first quarter is a disaster, with three turnovers. With 12 minutes to go in the second quarter, you trail 21-0. If this were baseball, that's it, game over, your season is done. 17 minutes is equal to 1/54th the length of the regular season. Even if it's a close game, you gotta call it by halftime, because that's the equivalence of the series going to a full 5 games.

How about comparing it to NHL which has an 82 game season and starts the playoffs with a best of 7 series. If the NHL had a playoffs just as short relative to the season as MLB did, then you'd call the series with 10 minutes to go in the 2nd period of Game 3.

MLB has such a long season. Just think about investing yourself in 162 games, winning your division, having the best record in baseball, and then losing 3 in the row and the year is over. Or even just losing 3 of 5.

That's two balls and one strike. 
This might make sense in other sports, but Baseball is the worst sport to have this problem. There's a saying in baseball that "Every team is gonna win 54 games, every team is gonna lose 54 games, it's what you do with the other 54 games that counts." If you wanna narrow it down to decent teams that have a shot at the playoffs, then you could make the saying "every team is gonna win 82 games, lose 55 games, it's what you do with the other 27 games that counts. That's it. The difference between the best team in baseball, and a mediocre team that was barely in the playoff hunt is just 27 games spread over 6 months.

Baseball is a sport of averages, likelihoods, and it only works right if you have a large sample size. It's the one sport that really makes sense to have such a long season. And it's the sport that makes sense to have the longest playoffs. And yet it has by far the SHORTEST playoffs of the major American sports.

The quickest you can win the WS is in a playoffs that's 6.8% the length of the regular season. The quickest you can win the SB is in 18.8% the length of the regular season. The longest the playoffs can take would be 11.7% for baseball and 25% for football.

3. The Regular Season is Almost Meaningless. 

Yeah, the regular season doesn't mean anything. 
There's so much talk about "diluting the regular season" in college football if you bring up a playoff system. Since your regular season is only 11-13 games, in order to have a shot at the title, you need to win them all, or maybe you can get away with 1 loss. This means that every single game has meaning.

Baseball is the exact opposite. There are so many regular season games that you can easily lose the first 20 games and to end the season at .500 you just gotta go 82-62 the rest of the way, or go .570, which isn't that significant a hole to climb out of. By September, most people are burnt out on baseball, especially the ones whose teams aren't gonna play in October. Contrast this with NFL fans. Even if their team sucked up the joint, they're not gonna miss the Super Bowl.

Let's look at it another way. In the NFL, you know your team is going to have to win 12 games to guarantee a playoff spot (as 11-5 teams have missed the playoffs), or if you wanna play the odds a bit, let's say 11 wins is enough to guarantee a playoff birth (4 teams in the last 4 years have won 10 or 11 games and missed the playoffs).

So you need to win 11, and you can't lose more than 5. That means that losing the first game of the season can get you 20% of the way to too many losses to control your destiny. Winning any game gets you another 11th of the way to the playoffs. Losing any game gets you a fifth of the way closer to staying home in January.

I call this one the Castigator
In the last 6 years, the best team to miss the MLB playoffs was the 2005 Indians, who went 93-69 but missed the big show. So let's say that guaranteeing a playoff berth requires 94 wins, or no more than 68 losses.

Winning any one game gets you 1/94th of the way to the playoffs, and losing any one game gets you 1/68th of the way closer to staying home. That's how utterly unimportant regular season games are individually. So think about this. You're asking teams to go 162 games where the stakes are that a loss gets you 1/68th of the way closer to missing the playoffs, THEN you ask them to play games where a loss gets them 1/3rd of the way closer to ending their season.

The regular season is far too diluted in meaning, and then they try to make up for it by giving a shortened playoff and that makes the games somehow mean "too much."

Using the same metrics, NFL postseason games are 5 times more important than regular season games. MLB postseason games are  22.6 times more important than regular season games. So that means that a single MLB playoff game is just as important as the month of April.


4. How Playoffs should be done


The Stanley Cup Playoffs are the greatest 6 weeks of sports anywhere. You start with 16 teams. You need to win 4 best-of-7 series to win the cup. Teams come in as a roster of professionals. By the end of the Cup Finals, you're looking at two teams of Brothers who've just completed an epic quest. These two teams spent 82 games trying to get in, then they spent up to 25 games battling for their playoff lives. That's like playing another 30% of the regular season where every game is extremely important. The longest the MLB playoffs can go is 19 games, but compare that to a 162 game season, and that's only 11.7%. That's why Hockey players look completely spent after the finals. They've just spent every ounce of energy, sacrificed their bodies, taken slap shots to the face, lost teeth, bleed all over the ice, and come back for more. Man I'm glad Hockey's back.

Villains: Or How I Learned To Stop Thinking And Just Hate The Bad Guy

5 October, 2011

So I finally got around to watching both Batman Begins and The Dark Knight. I'm not a big fan of comic-book movies for a number of reasons, but my man crush for Christian Bale along with Inception were plenty enough motivation for me to see what I was missing.

Ninjas
Wat.


Cool Shit/Plot
Christopher Nolan makes pretty soulless films that are way more about plot points and "cool" things than they are really about characters. I mean, honestly he never lets two chracters stay in a scene and just talk for more than 20 seconds. They never start to feel like people to me. That's okay, it can work, just as long as you pack in enough cool shit and awesome plot points.

There's no Cat button...Defrost?
So the whole microwave weapon in Batman Begins was just ridiculous. Maybe in a film where the cool shit wasn't the whole fucking idea could you get away with this. Basically the bad guy has pumped a chemical into the whole water supply that makes you go fucking crazy, BUT you have to inhale it, drinking it won't do. So it's in the water supply...I don't get it. And neither does Batman, until PLOT TWIST!, the bad guys manage to steal a microwave weapon that will vaporize watery things for miles around. Basically it's an inside-out microwave oven. Hey, wait a second, aren't people mostly made of water? Shouldn't this just nuke the shit out of everyone? No? Oh okay, I guess your plot points don't need logic. Why don't they just rent a plane and spray the shit over the city? Seems a lot easier than infiltrating the water supply then stealing a secret military weapon and then microwaving the whole city...

In The Dark Knight, Batman takes a bullet hole in a wall, not even the shattered bits of the bullet, then takes this hole and runs computer simulations to reconstruct what the bullet was like that created the hole. I suppose this could work to determine what kind of bullet or gun caused it, but no. Batman's computer model gives him a fingerprint on the bullet. That's right, he finds a hole in a wall and his computer back-engineers that into a fingerprint that was on the bullet. Do I need to explain how completely non-sensical this is. I thought the whole idea was that this was supposed to be the gritty-realistic Batman...Not bad CSI Batman. It's supposed to be just an awesome technology. Batman has several of these and they make sense, none of them are magic, they have a grounding in reality. But this idea that you could take a bullet hole and recreate a finger print that was on the shattered bullet is ridiculous and will never be possible.

Physics Lesson
Batman saves Maggie Gyllenhall from falling to her death by grabbing her and holding her as they both slam into a parked car. I guess Batman's suit spreads the forces out over his body and that somehow cushions the blow. It doesnt' really make a lot of sense, but fine. However, Maggie is just landing on him landing on a car. Think about it this way, how are the forces acting on her any different if he's holding her or not. Either way she's decellerating from free fall speed to stopped. Either way it's like running into a brick wall at 60 mph, are you telling me Batman's moobs act like airbags?

This is one example of an epidemic in Hollywood, the magic grabbing/holding effect. Falling a huge distance is fine as long as someone holds on to you. How often do we see Spiderman or Superman or other super heroes chase after someone who is falling, only to bring them to a dead stop by grabbing them just shy of slamming into concrete. Phew. Wait a second...Why is it bad to crash into pavement at 100 mph? Because you stop suddenly. It's the acceleration that hurts, not the fact that it's concrete. So when superman grabs you and stops you just inches from the ground, you're telling the audience that his arms are somehow super cushiony. If he really did it, it'd be like jumping fifteen stories onto steel girders shaped like arms. Bet they'll catch you all cushiony.

Or how about in The Matrix Reloaded, where Morpheus and the Key Maker are on the back of the semi truck as it is about to crash head first into another semitruck. Morpheus is all like, hey Neo, come on and save us. So the trucks crash together and the worst thing that will happen is they will fly over the crashed trucks at about 70-80 mph, then land on pavement and slide to a stop (or be blasted by the truck explosion). Instead of that, Neo flies in at hundreds if not thousands of miles per hour, grabs them and carries them to safety. Imagine standing on the street, minding your own business, when an airplane flies by and yanks you by your shirt collar and you instantly go from zero to 500 mph. More likely, you're head would snap back so hard it'd fall off. This is what Neo does to Morpheus rather than let him skid to a stop from 70 on pavement, he yanks him to an instant 500 mph.


The Over-the-top Bad Guy
When creating a villian, there are three main ideas.

1. The Completely Evil Bad Guy
Give him an evil sounding name and have his goals simply be super evil. He has no depth, and his name sounds something like Modkrod, Sauron, Voldemort, Vader, Sidious, General Grievous, Captian Bone-to-pick, or Admiral I'm a bad guy.

2. A villain that has different goals from the main character, but also isn't just evil for evil's sake, they see things differently. Sometimes they're simply a competitor who selfishly wants the same thing the MC is after. Other times their different world views are the source of their differences. For example, In the Matrix, Agent Smith sees humans as a virus or a disease, as an AI, he sees things differently. Although what his goals really are is kind of up in the air, so that makes him more like a Category 1 bad guy. Another example would be Se7en, where the bad guy is a sort of religious nut who thinks that he's going to put the fear of god back into people and make them live more piously, and thus he thinks he's probably saving souls by doing the evil things he is doing. See how much better that is than Sauron or Voldemort simply being evil looking,sounding guys that want power..

3. The Villain with the same goals as the MC.
If the Villain and the MC want the same things, suddenly there's a lot more depth here. The real disagreement isn't over the goal, it's about how far you're willing to go to accomplish it. The Bad guys are of the "The ends justifies the means" crowd, while the MC has some super-moral code they adhere to and will fight against their own goal because the bad guy is willing to go to far to get it.

In Minority Report, the bad guy is willing to kill in order to keep Pre-Crime running, because on the whole, it saves many more lives. The Main Character thinks murder is always wrong and ultimately fights to dismantle pre-crime. So at the end of the film, Pre-Crime is ended...thus returning us to a world with murder...Thanks Tom Cruise for getting rid of future-seeing cops that stop murders before they happen.


Another example, is the film Surrogates. In this world, everyone is a fat-ass shut-in who lives vicariously through a robot that looks like a super sexy version of them that goes out in the world. Bruce Willis is a cop who uses a surrogate at the beginning but is sick of the things and wants to live in the real world again, his wife however is obsessed with her perfect image and doesn't want to return to being an imperfect meatbag. The bad guy is James Cromwell, the guy who invented surrogates in the first place. He decides that his invention has ruined society and turned all of the users into people that are dead inside. So his plan is to unleash a virus that kills everyone using a surrogate, thus returning the world to normal. So Bruce Willis and James Cromwell both want people to return to the real world and abandon these perfect robot surrogates. So at the end, the virus is downloading that will kill all people attached to a surrogate. Bruce Willis is trying to stop it, and he stops it, keeping everyone alive, but then he has to press another button to stop the virus from destroying the surrogates (but without killing the people attached to them) he decides to let the virus go and blow up the surrogates. So then we cut to the street where all the surrogates suddenly go limp. And the world returns to normal thanks to Bruce Willis not stopping the virus totally. The End.

But wait...If Bruce Willis modified the virus from something that kills billions of people, into one that just destroys surrogates and doesn't harm a single person with a few keystrokes...couldn't Cromwell have just made a virus that didn't kill everyone in the first place. See what I'm getting at. The bad guy wants to stop people from using surrogates. He's also the president of the surrogate company. He has the power to destroy all surrogates, and stop building new ones, thus stopping the use of surrogates. INSTEAD of doing that, he tries to kill billions of people and writes it off as "they're already dead." Oh okay. Thanks for giving us an ethical dillemma by being completely over the top evil.

When the MC and Antagonist only disagree on how far you should go to accomplish your goal, you need to make both of their views make sense in order to create an actual ethical dillemma. In Minority Report, the bad guy actually seems to be in the right, because the ends seems to really justify the means. Killing one or a few people in order to prevent thousands of murders seems like a fair trade. So that leaves the main character as making a stupid stand to destroy something good because they can't see the big picture. OR they go the other way and make the villain just go completely over the top in how far they are willing to go.



So in Batman Begins, Liam Neeson and Batman both want justice and to punish bad guys. Batman thinks you should do this by enforcing the law, let the courts and prisons do the punishment, he's no executioner. So you'd think the counter point would be another vigilante who will just kill bad guys and not bother with the justice system, the problem is that there's no oversight, how do you know you're killing really bad guys for sure? no trial, no jury, etc. It creates a real ethical dilemma. Maybe Liam accidentally kills a handful of innocent people, and Batman then has a dillemma: do you allow Liam Neeson to keep being a vigilante who enforces justice but also makes mistakes sometimes? Instead of that, Liam Neeson wants to give everyone in the city crazy juice and then let all the bad guys out of jail in order to create total chaos and destroy the city so that it becomes a symbol or something.

His way of creating justice is to DESTROY AN ENTIRE CITY. How logical.

To make the villian with similar goals work, you need to set up both of their positions as logical, that way there is actually a dilemma to be had.

In Fight Club, Tyler Durden serves as a mentor for Ed Norton in teaching him to not care about material possessions or his job, to free him from this empty consumerist lifestyle. Then Tyler creates Project Mayhem and starts freeing others. They both are in agreement about the fact that this modern life is empty, meaningless, misleading, and needs to be stopped. At the end Tyler wants to blow up the buildings of credit card companies, thus erasing the debt record and putting everyone back to zero, thus enabling millions of others to join them in this movement. Ed Norton tries to stop them, first off he objects to the fact that they would be killing people, but Tyler points out that all of the people in the buildings are their people, so nobody will be killed. Ed Norton still wants to stop it. So here's the difference between them. Honestly I gotta say I'm with Tyler on this one, but the difference between their positions isn't nearly as far apart as in Surrogates. This way you don't see either of them as being irrational, but holding equal positions. Thus it's a real dilemma for the characters, and for the audience as well.

In Apocalypse Now, the real conflict is about whether a war should be fought according to rules, with R&R, barbecues, rules of engagement, etc. OR if you should just go ahead and do whatever it takes to win and end the thing. Kurtz thinks if you're going to fight a war, then take the gloves off and actually fight it. The main character is on the side of the Army, who wants to keep the public image good to keep the war going, so they want to stop Kurtz. The Army gives Willard the assignment to stop Kurtz. So here's Willard's dilemma. Do you assassinate Kurtz, the guy who the Army says is going too far, but in accomplishing your goal you will have yourself actually gone beyond what people in the Army are supposed to do. OR do you join him in his quest to actually win the war? Again, it's a real dilemma, it's something that the MC has to think about and so does the audience.

In The Dark Knight, rather than trying the Villain with similar goals, they go back to Villain #1, General Mayhem, I mean, The Joker, who is so evil that he even burns money! Gasp! A villain that destroys money!? How do you understand someone like that, they can't be understood they are just pure evil! The problem with this kind of villain is that they have no depth, they're just really bad. What's the Joker's goal? To just watch the world burn? Really? That's all we got? And to make him even more like a real person, let's give him the magical power to plan ahead incredibly. There's the egg-timer window thing, which would require such precise timing to make it work that it's nearly impossible. Then the whole chase thing where he actually wanted to get captured. I.E. the nonsensical plot twist. He just has planned fifteen steps ahead and whenever he's in a jam he's happened to have planted a bomb in the perfect place to get him out of a jam. Basically this is a Wizard or a character from Fantasy that can make shit up to get out of a jam, but instead of saying he has some magic power or something, there is no explanation, he's just that bad...Cool, thanks.


Batman's Voice
So whenever Bruce puts the suit on, he talks in a super deep scary voice. That's fine, he's masking his voice so people can't figure out who he is. Makes sense. Up until he starts interacting with people who know his real identity, but he keeps using that voice anyway. Suddenly he's talking to the girl and dressed as a bat and talking in a fake deep voice. At this point he just looks like an idiot.


Closing Thoughts
I enjoyed these films as a gritty more realistic take on the superhero film, but I feel like sometimes they go to far in trying to make cool things, and when it comes to villains have avoided subtlety at all costs. If they want the series to really go anywhere, they better come up with a villain that isn't so ridiculous. Apparently Liam Neeson is coming back as the villain for The Dark Knight Rises, even though he died at the end of Batman Begins. Supposedly he's Ra's al Ghul, which wikipedia tells me is a sort of immortal assassin whose goal is to save the planet from evil human pollution. Rather than going all Al Gore on everybody and trying to spread awareness and invent green technology, his method is to kill lots of people as a way of reducing our carbon footprint. Sounds like we're gonna have a real ethical dillema on our hands with this guy...