What The Chiefs Should Have Done

28 April, 2013

The Chiefs made these picks in the draft:

1-1 Eric Fisher, Left Tackle, Central Michigan
3-63 Travis Kelce, Tight End, Cincinatti
3-96 Knile Davis, Running Back, Arkansas
4-99 Nico Johnson, Linebacker, Alabama
5-134 Sanders Commings, Cornerback, Georgia
6-170 Eric Kush, Center, California (Pennsylvania)
6-204 Braden Wilson, Fullback, Kansas State
7-207 Mike Catapana, Defensive End, Princeton

The new face of the franchise...

Personally, my first reaction to their draft is...it was fucking awful. Terrible. Ridiculous. Of course, I could be totally wrong and these guys might be building blocks to a Super Bowl victory in three or four years (I'd wager against that though).

First off, they had the number one overall pick. This pick needs to make a HUGE impact. This is where Peyton Manning, John Elway, Andrew Luck, and many other quarterbacks were selected. Well the Chiefs were just unlucky enough that the one year they finish dead last is the first year in a while in which no quarterback would go in the top 10. "Earning the #1 pick" meant you got Andrew Luck or Cam Newton the last two years. In 2010 it meant Sam Bradford, or if you want to go on the other side of the ball, Ndonkeykong Suh. 2009: Stafford.

Back in 2008 there was no quarterback "worthy" of the number one pick. The Dolphins went with Jake Long, Left Tackle. Now five years later, they simply let Long walk in free agency because he was demanding too much money for his second contract. The Chiefs follow in the 2008 Dolphins footsteps by picking a Left Tackle because there's no Quarterback worth a shot (plus we already traded for Alex Smith). The Rams picked second in 2008 and they went with Howie Long's son Chris. The Falcons at 3 picked Matt Ryan...so, hey Dolphins, wanna try that 2008 pick again?

I'm not saying that E.J. Manuel or Geno Smith is going to be Matt Ryan, but I don't think a Left Tackle is going to have enough impact to warrant the pick. I mean, this Fisher guy needs to basically be a hall-of-fame Left Tackle. He needs to be like Orlando Pace who was so good he made Mike Martz look smart. Any offensive coordinator would look smart calling plays down to Kurt Warner with him standing behind Pace and throwing to Holt and Bruce and Faulk. So if Fisher is that great. Alright, that might be okay. But...if Fisher is THAT great, why was there not a consensus on who was the best Left Tackle in the draft? Three LTs went in the first four picks, and up till the draft, most seemed to think Joeckel was the best tackle. What's more likely: there are 2 or 3 amazing, hall-of-fame caliber left tackles at the top of the draft? Or there are 3 pretty good left tackles, maybe one is hall-of-fame caliber, one will be mediocre, and one will be a bust?

This guy was drafted 6th overall in 2009.
Look how Athletic he is. 

In 2009, the Lions took Matt Stafford with the first pick and the Rams took Tackle Jason Smith with the 2nd pick. I recall many people suggesting that the Lions should take Jason Smith, because any quarterback picked by this 0-16 team would be murdered trying to stand in the pocket, so you need to get that left tackle this year and try for a quarterback next year. That's how good Jason Smith was supposed to be. He went second to the Rams, and guess what, he's not even a Ram anymore. They only had him for three years. He's on his third team after being drafted in 2009.

Any draft pick can be a bust, we have no idea who will be good. There are guys who seem amazing and destined for greatness that completely fail. There are undrafted guys in Canton. It happens. So if that's the case, if every draft pick is a lottery ticket, then shouldn't you treat them accordingly? If you can trade down and turn one lottery ticket into 3 lottery tickets, shouldn't you do it? Of course, the 1st pick is a better lottery ticket than the 30th, but they're both lottery tickets nonetheless.

Sweet block Branden.

Let's go back to the 2008 Dolphins. They took Jake Long 1st overall. Eight Left Tackles were drafted in the first round that year. If the Dolphins didn't take Jake Long, instead they took Matt Ryan, then they took the best Left Tackle with the first pick in round two, then they might have gotten the 8th left tackle taken (If the Dolphins don't take Long, then you could plausibly shift each tackle down a spot, so only 7 go in the first round). So the Dolphins get Matt Ryan, and then at the top of the second round they get the 8th Left Tackle, who was Duane Brown, who made the pro-bowl last season as the left tackle for the Texans. Arguably, the Texans got the better deal. They just re-signed Brown to a 6 year extension, and his rookie contract was for less money than Jake Long got. So if the 8th Left Tackle and the First Left Tackle are a toss-up, then why would the Dolphins waste all the leverage of the 1st overall pick? They could have had Matt Ryan and a pro-bowl left tackle in 2008.


Let's get back to the Chiefs. There they are, sitting at #1, staring into the abyss. Three Left Tackles would go in the first four picks. They're drafting a Left Tackle because they want to get rid of Branden Albert, a capable Left Tackle that has a history of back injuries and is demanding too much money for a long term deal. So the Chiefs were shopping Albert in a trade to the Dolphins to replace Jake Long who left in free agency. It sounded before the draft like they were haggling over which of the Dolphins second round picks would serve as compensation for Albert. No deal was done, and now the Chiefs have Albert and Fisher. Albert has said he won't move to the right side. So the Chiefs might move Albert over anyway, or have Fisher play right tackle for a year, and then move him to left tackle when Albert walks in free agency. Either way, you've used the number one overall pick to somehow not really improve your team. If they do manage to trade Albert before this season, we might see an improvement from Albert to Fisher, but there's no guarantee of that. What they should do now is hang on to both until at least camp, then if they can see that Fisher is clearly better, trade Albert to a team that needs a tackle, waiting up until the end of pre-season, hoping that some starting Left tackle somewhere in the league goes down for the season. The Chiefs would then be able to get a 2nd rounder in the 2014 draft. But after seeing how poorly the Chiefs handled the Alex Smith trade, I'll bet they do something much dumber than that.

So what should they have done?

On Thursday, the first round kicked off with the Chiefs on the clock and the whole draft class is their oyster. They can get any player they want. OR, they can trade down and turn this best lottery ticket into several lottery tickets. They hold the following picks:

1st
63rd
96th
99th
plus a 5th rounder, 2 6th rounders, and a 7th rounder



The Raiders traded down from 3 to 12, as the Dolphins moved up to get Dion Jordan. To make that move, from 12 up to 3, the Dolphins gave the Raiders the 42nd overall pick. So that's what it costs to move up 9 spots.

Dion Jordan

The Arizona Cardinals were desperate to bolster one of the worst offensive lines in football. They had the 7th overall pick, and yet at 7, they could only get the 4th best Left Tackle in the draft, and so they instead picked the best Guard available. This is a huge mistake, Guards just don't have the value to be taken here. The last time a Guard went in the Top 10 was in 1997. The Saints picked Chris Naeole 10th. Tony
Gonzalez went three picks later. Tarik Glenn, a Left Tackle went 19th in that draft, and he was the anchor of the Colts for a decade, retiring after they won the Super Bowl a decade later. Guards just don't have the value because even a great guard isn't all that much better than a mediocre guard. Compare this to Quarterback, where a great QB is a huge difference over a mediocre QB. You win championships with elite Quarterbacks, not with guards.

So the Chiefs arrange a trade with Arizona. They swap the 7th and 1st picks, in exchange, the Cardinals send the Chiefs their 2nd rounder (45th overall), which you can see is actually less compensation than the Raiders got for the 3rd pick. So I'll say the Cardinals have to give up a bit more. They also send KC their 3rd round pick (69 overall) and the Chiefs send back their first pick in the 4th round (99th pick).

The Cardinals take the best Tackle in their estimation, which might be Fisher or Joeckel. The Jaguars at 2 take whoever the Cardinals don't take. At 3, the Raiders traded down with Miami so the Dolphins could get Dion Jordan. In reality, the Rams traded up to 8, swapping first rounders with the Bills to get WR Tavon Austin. The Rams are desperate to get receivers for Bradford to throw to. So let's say the Chiefs get the same deal Buffalo got, and the Chiefs move down from 7 to 16. In exchange, the Rams sent Buffalo the 46th overall pick, they swapped 3rd round picks, (Bills had 71, Rams had 78), and the Rams sent their 7th rounder. So basically the Bills dropped 8 spots in the 1st round, and 7 spots in the third round, in exchange for an extra 2nd rounder. Let's have the Chiefs make the same deal.

Now the Chiefs have the following picks:

16th (from Rams)
45th (from Cardinals)
46th
63rd
78th
96th
plus a 5, 2 6's and 2 7's

In Walrus we Trust.

At 16 they trade down again. San Francisco traded up from 31 to 18 with Dallas, giving up the 74th overall pick. So let's say that the Chiefs make that same deal for swapping 31 to 16. So that 15 spot move is worth the 74th pick.

Chiefs now hold

31
45
46
63
78
96
plus a 5, 2 6's and 2 7's.

The Vikings traded up into the tail end of the first round to get WR Cordarelle Patterson. The New England Patriots and Darth Belichick, knowing that draft picks are lottery tickets, often trade back and turn one pick into many. They also have been to 5 Super Bowls in the last 12 years, and only missed the playoffs twice in that stretch (going 9-7 in 2002, and 11-5 in 2008 with Matt Cassel) That's 11 seasons with 10+ wins in 12 years, and the one exception was a 9-7 performance. So maybe those guys know how to draft, and they are notorious for trading down down down.

Well the Vikings moved up to get New England's 29th overall pick. In exchange, the Vikings sent the Patriots their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th round picks (52,83,102, and 229).

We've got the Chiefs sitting at 31, and the Vikings were moving up from 52 to 29, and probably were making the move to get ahead of Baltimore at 32 (who lost Anquan Boldin). So let's say the Chiefs get the same deal. They move down from 31 to 52 and pick up 3 picks for their trouble.

Day 1 ends without the Chiefs making a pick, despite being on the clock 4 times. Instead of just Eric Fisher, who they'll use to replace Branden Albert, thus making the team not all that much better, they have acquired many lottery tickets. I'll have them hang on to Branden Albert, and use some of these extra picks to take some Left Tackles with these lottery tickets later in the draft.

As Day 1 ends, the Chiefs have the following:

45
46
52
63
78
83
96
102
plus a 5th, 2 6ths and 3 7ths.

Before Day 2 stars, the Chiefs package some of these picks together to trade toward the top of round 2. After trades, they look like this:

Geno the Chief

35 (a move up from 45 for the 96th pick)
37 (moving up from 46 for the 102nd pick)
52
63
78
83
plus a 5, 2 6's and 3 7's)

Zach Ertz

Finally the Chiefs start making picks. At 35, I have them take QB Geno Smith (Who was actually drafted 39th). He'll compete with Alex Smith. Maybe he'll become great. Maybe not. It's a crap-shoot afterall, but the Chiefs come out of this draft with arguably the best Quarterback in the class. Not bad for the 35th pick.

With their first pick after Fisher, they took a tight end, but not someone who was all that highly rated. Instead, I have them use the 37th pick on Zach Ertz, the 2nd rated Tight End (who was actually drafted 35th).

In reality, they used their third choice on running back Knile Davis, who in his senior season averaged 3.4 yards per carry. WOW, this guy must be amazing to get 3 yards a carry in college. Instead of taking Knile Davis, they take Montee Ball at 52 (who actually went 58 to the Broncos). Montee Ball was a 2-time Consensus All-American in college. He rushed for 77 TDs and over 5000 yards in
college.

Montee Ball

At 63 the Chiefs actually took Tight End Travis Kelce. I've already had them take a TE in this draft, so they don't take a TE. Instead I have them take WR Keenan Allen, who was projected by some to be a first rounder. He slipped to the Chargers at 76 in reality.

At 78, I have the Chiefs take Damontre Moore DE/OLB, who actually went 81 to the Giants.

Keenan Allen

At 83 I'll have the Chiefs take whoever they think the best Tackle is, either David Bakhtiari (who went 109th) or Brennan Williams (who went 89th).

Then with their 6 remaining late round choices they can grab the same guys they really did, plus 2 more.

So here's a summary of the difference between what would have happened if I was running the Chiefs and what actually happened:

They drafted:

1-1 Eric Fisher, Left Tackle, Central Michigan
3-63 Travis Kelce, Tight End, Cincinatti
3-96 Knile Davis, Running Back, Arkansas
4-99 Nico Johnson, Linebacker, Alabama
5-134 Sanders Commings, Cornerback, Georgia
6-170 Eric Kush, Center, California (Pennsylvania)
6-204 Braden Wilson, Fullback, Kansas State

Damontre Moore. I think he majored in Chiropractry. 

7-207 Mike Catapana, Defensive End, Princeton

And are probably going to get rid of Branden Albert for maybe a 2nd or 3rd rounder next draft. Or they'll use him this year and then get nothing for him as he leaves in free agency.

I drafted:

2-35 Geno Smith, Quarterback, West Virginia
2-37 Zach Ertz, Tight End, Stanford
2-52 Montee Ball, Running Back, Wisconsin
3-63 Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver, Cal
3-78 Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
3-83 David Bakhtiari, Tackle, Colorado

Brennan Williams

+ the real late rounders

5-134 Sanders Commings, Cornerback, Georgia
6-170 Eric Kush, Center, California (Pennsylvania)
6-204 Braden Wilson, Fullback, Kansas State
7-207 Mike Catapana, Defensive End, Princeton

and an extra 6 and 7.

6- Kenjon Barner, Running Back, Oregon

and another Tackle in the 7th round. 

Which Chiefs team would be better off in 2013? 

I think my team, with Alex Smith competing against Geno Smith (who can take over in a year Kaepernick-style), with Jamaal Charles, Bowe, Moeaki, a pretty solid offensive line, PLUS Keenan Allen, Zach Ertz, and Montee Ball should make for a pretty productive offense. Add in Kenjon Barner and McCluster to mix things up, maybe Jon Baldwin can finally do something. They should be able to put some points on the board.

Kenjon Barner

Instead, we've got just Alex Smith, nobody of any quality to compete with him, and no long-term answer at QB. The offensive line might be better, but no real improvement in terms of weapons for the offense, and just some boring late round picks to fill holes. I think we would be better off. 

tl;dr

If you use the 1st overall pick to trade down multiple times, you could essentially make this trade: 

Give Up:

Eric Fisher 

Travis Kelce

Knile Davis

Nico Johnson

Get:

Geno Smith
Zach Ertz
Montee Ball
Keenan Allen
Damontre Moore
David Bakhtiari
+ 2 late round picks


How does that trade sound?